12/16/2023 0 Comments Pokerzebra not working![]() Officially reported COVID-19 deaths drawn from the COVerAGE database, with death counts aggregated to 5-year age groups, downloaded. The analysis employs two main sources of data: This paper addresses that concern and examines this question by comparing the age gradient of COVID-19 mortality in a broad set of countries using both official COVID-19 death counts and excess mortality estimates for 2020. In particular, it is possible that deaths among older people in developing countries have been more likely to be underattributed to the disease in official COVID-19 death counts. ![]() 14–19 When using only official death counts, it is unclear to what extent the finding of flatter COVID-19 age-mortality curves among LMICs may have been driven by data reporting issues. Several studies have highlighted possible contributing factors to variation across countries in overall COVID-19 mortality, including age structure of the population and pre-existing health conditions and those same factors could generate different patterns in mortality by age. 11–13 This is to our knowledge the first study that estimates COVID-19 excess mortality by age for a wide swath of countries. 8–10 Other studies have used excess mortality estimates but have mainly focused on estimating changes to life expectancy without examining the age profile of the COVID-19 impacts on mortality. 4 7 However, excess deaths at the aggregate population level during the pandemic exceed officially recognised COVID-19 deaths in most countries. 2–7 Some of these studies have found a pattern of flatter COVID-19 age-mortality curves among low-income and middle-income countries (LMICs) using only official COVID-19 death counts. Nearly all studies of the pandemic’s age-mortality patterns have used only official COVID-19 death data. Vaccine availability was very limited before 2021 and therefore is unlikely to affect the mortality patterns identified in this analysis. Our study examines this question by comparing the age gradient of COVID-19 mortality in a broad set of countries using both official COVID-19 death counts and excess mortality estimates for 2020. But this prediction only holds if the age profile of COVID-19 mortality remains similar across countries. 1 This risk profile would tend to limit the death toll in developing countries, which generally have younger populations. Early in the pandemic, case data from patients with COVID-19 in mainland China showed that COVID-19 mortality risk increases rapidly with age. ![]() The available data for this study does not allow ascertaining to what extent the reported differences in the age-specific mortality rates are driven by differences in age-specific cumulative infection rates or in the age-specific cumulative infection fatality rate or both.īecause of limitations in available mortality data, the analysis includes a large set of high-income and-middle income countries but does not include many low-income countries.Īn important question for understanding the global impact of the COVID-19 pandemic is the disease’s age pattern of mortality across countries. Using a standardised population analysis, this study assesses the extent to which variation across countries in the age distribution of COVID-19 deaths was driven by variation in the population age distribution. However, excess deaths at the aggregate population level during the pandemic exceed officially recognised COVID-19 deaths in most countries. ![]() This represents a methodological contribution because nearly all studies of the pandemic’s age mortality patterns have used only official COVID-19 death data. This study compares the age gradient of COVID-19 mortality in a broad set of countries using both official COVID-19 death counts and excess mortality estimates for 2020.
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